What’s moving the
markets now.

PJM's market monitor just put a number on what data center growth costs: total wholesale cost of $111.61/MWh through September, up 41% from $79.19 a year ago. Energy rose 46% to $70.89/MWh, capacity jumped 81% to $19.42/MWh, and data center load alone added about $9.95/MWh. The IMM still calls the capacity auctions through 2028/29 not competitive, and the load pipeline keeps growing, with PPL counting 35.3 GW of advanced-stage Pennsylvania load and Oncor setting a 33 GW peak in ERCOT, up 6% from its prior record.

PJM's winter study does find adequate reserves, with load management as the backstop, so this is not a scarcity call for the next few months. It is a structural cost call. For suppliers, the question is whether fixed-price offers and renewal pricing reflect a world where capacity and energy are both resetting higher, and how much of the data center premium is already embedded in the forward curve versus still to come.

December gas closed at $3.353/MMBtu on Wednesday, its highest close since February and up about 12% on the week. Colder two-week forecasts, near-record LNG feedgas and speculators covering their biggest net short since 2020 did the work. Friday's EIA print added fuel: a 61 Bcf build, about 5 Bcf under consensus, though still larger than the five-year norm, so the surplus widened to 75 Bcf with stocks at 3,862 Bcf.

The tension is between that prompt rally and EIA's November outlook, which sees Henry Hub averaging just $2.87 this winter. The tight spot is South Central salt at 312 Bcf, 19 Bcf under normal, and that is where winter basis risk lives. Marketers carrying open winter positions should treat this week as a reminder that a short-covering rally can move faster than fundamentals, and stress test hedges against a cold snap rather than the mild base case.

Three grids, one direction. NYSERDA opened its second bulk storage solicitation on Nov. 12, targeting about 1 GW of grid-scale batteries on top of the 950 MW contracted in round one. ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas wants authority to curtail data centers at the first level of an emergency alert, or earlier, instead of waiting for level two. And PJM's Expedited Interconnection Track now holds about 2,600 MW across four projects, mostly batteries, all targeting mid-2029.

Whether it is stored energy or load that can be shed on command, flexibility is being written into how grids plan to meet large load, and each piece trims the scarcity spikes REPs pay for. Timing matters, though. New York's storage and PJM's batteries are years out, and ERCOT's change needs lawmakers. Until then, flexible capacity that already exists, from behind-the-meter batteries to curtailable C&I load, is scarce, and that is where near-term value sits.