What’s moving the
markets now.
We scan dozens of sources across power and U.S. natural gas every week. This page distills the cross-market themes that matter most to retail suppliers, gas marketers, and asset operators.
Last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Capacity is being priced on load that has not had to prove itself
Capacity pricing is being set by load that has not had to prove itself. FERC let the ComEd contract stand where a $1 letter of credit backed a 1.8 GW, $20 billion data center in Joliet, and it backed PJM on dropping Oklo's 750 MW Virginia project from the current study cycle. Rep. Pallone now puts the capacity cost increase tied to data centers near $30 billion since summer 2024 and wants them to cover every dollar they cause. That is pressure, not an order.
For a REP, the pattern is what matters: unvetted load stays in the queue competing for the same capacity, while supply that cannot clear the queue never shows up in the stack. NRDC adds that PJM's backstop and large-load plans do not work without state action on interruptible tariffs and capacity obligations. Until that lands, price your forward capacity exposure as if the load is real and the supply is late.
The pipeline premium is gone, and Hormuz is the only floor left
The pipeline premium is gone. Columbia Gas lifted force majeure on Mountaineer XPress after the 1.8 Bcf/d disruption, November broke its 50-day moving average and fell 6.3 cents to $3.043, and a nor'easter pushed Northeast spot below $1 per MMBtu, the lowest since 2022. LSEG trimmed the demand call to 102.6 Bcf a day this week, and storage sits 2.4% above the five-year average, down from 2.9% a week ago.
The counterweight is global. Trump waved off Iran's Hormuz plan, which keeps Persian Gulf LNG disrupted and the call on U.S. cargoes firm. With output near 110.6 Bcf/d and rigs at a three-year high of 135, supply is winning domestically, so weather and Thursday's EIA print are the near-term drivers. For marketers, that argues for buying discipline on prompt needs and close attention to basis, not chasing a winter shortage that the curve is not pricing.
Flexibility is landing in the hours that cost the most
Flexibility is landing in the hours that cost the most. NYSERDA picked about 1.7 GW in its first bulk storage round, including 950 MW of four to eight hour lithium-ion batteries, though nothing runs until the end of 2030. In Texas, SMT's parent committed up to $268 million behind projects like the 160 MW/320 MWh Houston IV, which came online in six weeks. ERCOT load is forecast at 66.6 GW this week, down from 68.55 GW, with wind at 13.5 GW.
Behind the meter, New England logged its 500th duck curve day, with about 7,000 MW of rooftop solar pulling midday load off the wholesale system, and a second judge restored roughly $250 million in Solar for All money for Texas. The catch is the sunset ramp, which still needs gas that does not start quickly. Read it as softer midday and peak pricing, with the ramp hours as the remaining risk.